A Credit Suisse report (found via Apple Insider) has calmed fears for AT&T management and investors that if/when the iPhone moves to other carriers large swathes of subscribers will follow. While this may be accurate I’m not sure this is the story. For me the story will be more iPhone versus Android. I’ve spoken to many people and businesses in the US who have moved to Android as their smartphone platform because they (for whatever reason) do not want to be on AT&T’s network. This has resulted in a market share of the smartphone market of circa 20% in the US. In the UK however where the iPhone is available on all main carrier networks the growth of Android and market share has lagged the US to circa 10%.
My question is: will the momentum created by Android be maintained if/when iPhone is released on other US networks. I would argue that it will. The market gap that Android has filled in the US has allowed device manufacturers, carriers, retailers and Google build a market presence that will be difficult for Apple to stop. It also supports investment in the Android platform which still requires improvements to UI and marketplace to compete successfully with Apple.
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